LONG-RUN AND SHORT-RUN DYNAMICS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES FLOWS AND DOMESTIC CREDIT IN PAKISTAN

This study formulates and examines the monetary approach to the balance of payments by incorporating the currency substitution version of money demand function for Pakistan over the period 1962-2005 using FM-OLS and Johansen-Juselius cointegration techniques. The results suggest that real output, real exchange rate and domestic credit play an important role in the determination of foreign exchange reserves in Pakistan in long-as well in short-run. Moreover, the monetary authorities sterilize foreign exchange reserves by 12% in long-run and 66% in short-run. The results support the evidence of long-run causality running from reserves to domestic credit. One important policy implication from the empirical analysis is that the validity of the monetary approach to the balance of payments and the effectiveness of monetary policy depend on the nature of the money demand function. As the specification of money demand has changes the evidence based on monetary approach has also changes.Monetary Approach, Foreign Exchange Reserves, Domestic Credit, Cointegration

Trends in Polarisation in Pakistan

This study analyses the trends in polarisation in Pakistan, in its rural and urban segments and its provinces, at the micro level during the period 1992-93 to 2001-02. Estimations are made by using the Bossert-Schworm measure (2006). The study finds fluctuating trends. In general, polarisation declined in all regions of Pakistan during 1996-97 and 2001-02, while 1998-99 is the period of maximum polarisation. Incorporating the household size reduces the extent of polarisation, implying that ignoring the household size overestimates polarisation. The comparison of trends in polarisation and income inequality shows that generally the trends in inequality and polarisation are similar.Polarisation, Income Inequality, Poverty, Welfare

Influence of single and multiple dry bands on critical flashover voltage of silicone rubber outdoor insulators: simulation and experimental study

Dry band formation on the surface of outdoor insulators is one of the main reasons leading to flashover and power outages. In this paper, a dynamic arc model is proposed for single and multiple dry bands configuration to predict the critical flashover voltage for silicone rubber outdoor insulators. An arc is modelled as a time dependent impedance consisting of a Resistor Inductor Capacitor (RLC) circuit. The effect of dry band location and existence of multiple dry bands on critical flashover voltage is investigated. To validate the proposed model, experiments were conducted in a climate chamber under controlled environmental conditions on rectangular silicone rubber sheets polluted using improved solid layer method based on IEC 60,507. Tests were conducted at different dry band configurations and pollution severity levels. A good correlation was found between experimental results and simulation results. This model can provide a good foundation for the development of mathematical models for station post insulators having multiple dry and clean bands and can be used in the design and selection of outdoor insulators for polluted conditions

Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis

This study examines the demand for energy at disaggregate level (gas, electricity and coal) for Pakistan over the period 1972-2007. Over main results suggest that electricity and coal consumption responds positively to changes in real income per capita and negatively to changes in domestic price level. The gas consumption responds negatively to real income and price changes in the shortrun, however, in the long-run real income exerts positive effect on gas consumption, while domestic price remains insignificant. Furthermore, in the short-run the average elasticities of price and real income for gas consumption (in absolute terms) are greater than that of electricity and coal consumption. The differences in elasticities of each component of energy have significant policy implications for income and revenue generation.Pakistan, Energy Demand

What Determines Private Investment? The Case of Pakistan

This study is an attempt to analyse the determinants of private investment in Pakistan over the period 1972-2005. The ARDL co-integration approach is employed to check the existence of a long-run relationship as well as short-run dynamics of investment. The results show that most traditional factors have little or no impact on private investment. These results may support the idea that nontraditional factors such as quality of institutions, governance, entrepreneurial skill, etc., are prerequisites for private investment to flourish. We find partial support for the accelerator principle and the crowding-out hypothesis in the case of Pakistan. However, the hypothesis that the volume of the funds is as important as the cost of the funds used in financing private investment and the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis are not verified in the case of Pakistan.Private Investment, Growth, Crowding Out, co-integration

EFFICIENT DYNAMIC ADDRESSING BASED ROUTING FOR UNDERWATER WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS

This thesis presents a study about the problem of data gathering in the inhospitable underwater environment. Besides long propagation delays and high error probability, continuous node movement also makes it difficult to manage the routing information during the process of data forwarding. In order to overcome the problem of large propagation delays and unreliable link quality, many algorithms have been proposed and some of them provide good solutions for these issues, yet continuous node movements still need attention. Considering the node mobility as a challenging task, a distributed routing scheme called Hop-by-Hop Dynamic Addressing Based (H2- DAB) routing protocol is proposed where every node in the network will be assigned a routable address quickly and efficiently without any explicit configuration or any dimensional location information. According to our best knowledge, H2-DAB is first addressing based routing approach for underwater wireless sensor networks (UWSNs) and not only has it helped to choose the routing path faster but also efficiently enables a recovery procedure in case of smooth forwarding failure. The proposed scheme provides an option where nodes is able to communicate without any centralized infrastructure, and a mechanism furthermore is available where nodes can come and leave the network without having any serious effect on the rest of the network. Moreover, another serious issue in UWSNs is that acoustic links are subject to high transmission power with high channel impairments that result in higher error rates and temporary path losses, which accordingly restrict the efficiency of these networks. The limited resources have made it difficult to design a protocol which is capable of maximizing the reliability of these networks. For this purpose, a Two-Hop Acknowledgement (2H-ACK) reliability model where two copies of the same data packet are maintained in the network without extra burden on the available resources is proposed. Simulation results show that H2-DAB can easily manage during the quick routing changes where node movements are very frequent yet it requires little or no overhead to efficiently complete its tasks

Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis

This study examines the demand for energy at disaggregate level (gas, electricity and coal) for Pakistan over the period 1972-2007. Over main results suggest that electricity and coal consumption responds positively to changes in real income per capita and negatively to changes in domestic price level. The gas consumption responds negatively to real income and price changes in the short-run, however, in the long-run real income exerts positive effect on gas consumption, while domestic price remains insignificant. Furthermore, in the short-run the average elasticities of price and real income for gas consumption (in absolute terms) are greater than that of electricity and coal consumption. The differences in elasticities of each component of energy have significant policy implications for income and revenue generation.Energy Demand, Disaggregate Analysis, Cointegration

Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilisation in Pakistan

Under the current managed float exchange rate system; the central bank may respond to an exchange market disequilibria by changing either the international reserves or the exchange rates. Under such a regime, a major policy difficulty is the interaction between exchange rate policies and monetary policies. The monetary authorities intervene in the exchange market in response to undesired fluctuations in exchange rates,1 could adversely affect monetary control and move the economy away from internal target such as price stability. Under such a policy dilemma, fully sterilised intervention2 involves a pure swap of foreign and domestic assets, which have not effect on the money supply, received greater attention by the policy-makers in early 1980s, particularly, through the experience of West Germany [Obstfeld (1983)]. Ideally, it provides an independent policy tool to deal with the exchange rate without affecting the internal policy targets. Moreover, it is argues that fully sterilised intervention insulate domestic policies completely from balance of payments considerations. Further, the effects of intervention on exchange rates are close to zero if intervention is completely sterilised. Given this conviction, it is hard to see why the central bank would intervene in the foreign exchange market and sterilised completely at the same time [Neumann (1984)]. It is further argued that sterilisation is capable to move exchange rates through either a portfolio or signaling channel. In developing countries, an intervention may not be used purely to stabilise exchange rate but to reduce its impacts of volatile exchange rates on price level.

Energy Demand in Pakistan: A Disaggregate Analysis

This study examines the demand for energy at disaggregate level (gas, electricity and coal) for Pakistan over the period 1972-2007. Over main results suggest that electricity and coal consumption responds positively to changes in real income per capita and negatively to changes in domestic price level. The gas consumption responds negatively to real income and price changes in the shortrun, however, in the long-run real income exerts positive effect on gas consumption, while domestic price remains insignificant. Furthermore, in the short-run the average elasticities of price and real income for gas consumption (in absolute terms) are greater than that of electricity and coal consumption. The differences in elasticities of each component of energy have significant policy implications for income and revenue generation.Energy Demand, Cointegration, Pakistan